Swine Flu the Final Nail in the Cruise Ship Coffin??

[Jim Coston]

Although reports are still preliminary, the Swine Flu outbreak is worrisome on multiple levels.

As those who were in Asia during the SARS outbreak several years remember, Cruise Ship passenger numbers dwindled rapidly.

And now this, during the current economic downturn could really leave the travel industry hurting.

In 2008, the World Bank estimated that a flu pandemic could cost the global economy an estimated $3 trillion in economic activity, resulting in a nearly 5 percent drop in world gross domestic product.

In the last 72 Hours...

Mexico reports over 1000 cases of suspected Swine Flu with over 80 fatalities.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon declared an emergency in his country’s swine flu outbreak, giving him powers to order quarantines and suspend public events.

Suspected cases have surface in California, Texas, Kansas and New York (tests are pending but officials say Swine Flu is probable)

New Zealand quarentines 25 students recently returned from trip to Mexico with Swine Flu symptoms

A British Air Flight Attendant has been admitted to hospital with Flu like symptoms in London following a flight from Mexico.

Some of the cases may not be Swine Flu but it doesn't matter - it's the perception of danger that will prevent travellers from going on holiday thus further weakening the cruise travel industry.

In the 1918 Influenza outbreak killed over 50 million people in just 18 months.

That was before air travel, when going from London to Sydney could take weeks or even months and yet it still spread across the globe.

Today, you can be anywhere in the world in as little as 24 hours (unless, of course you are booked by my travel agent).

And so can the Flu.


World Health Organization director Dr. Margaret Chan has said the new strain of H1N1 has the potential to become a pandemic strain because it does spread easily and does cause serious disease.

CDC experts note that while it is possible to contain an outbreak of disease that is in one limited area, once it is reported in widespread locations, the spread is impossible to control.

I don't mean to be alarmist, but this has the potential to be very damaging to the worlds' physical and economic health unlike anything seen in decades.

You might want to book the following site for news updates and analysis http://afludiary.blogspot.com/

[Jim Coston]

The Cruise Lines International Association, which represents major cruise lines, issued the following statement today (April 27,2009) regarding the recent outbreak of swine flu in Mexico.

“While no cases of Swine Flu aboard cruise ships or in cruise ports have been reported, the cruise industry is consulting closely with public health officials and government agencies, such as the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), the World Health Organization (WHO), and the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) to monitor the situation.

“CLIA member cruise lines go to great lengths to maintain clean and sanitary environments aboard our vessels with the most comprehensive and proactive health and sanitation protocols in the travel and tourism industry. All CLIA members that engage in international voyages have well trained medical staff, expansive reporting and surveillance capabilities onboard.

Working with U.S. public health officials in the CDC’s Vessel Sanitation Program, the cruise industry has developed and complies with extensive practices and procedures that are effective in mitigating illness aboard cruise ships. Additionally, working with the CDC and other governmental agencies, we are examining further steps that can be taken if necessary."

[Jim Coston]

As Swine Flu accellerates, Cruise Lines react

From (12:05 PM EDT) -- At least three major cruise lines have canceled port calls today (April 28, 2009)in Mexico as worries about a potentially deadly outbreak of swine flu grow.

A spokeswoman for Princess Cruises tells USA TODAY both the 2,670-passenger Sapphire Princess and 1,970-passenger Coral Princess -- scheduled to call today in Puerto Vallarta and Cabo San Lucas, respectively -- have remained out to sea, and Holland America also has canceled a call today in Mazatlan planned for the 1,258-passenger Ryndam.

Carnival spokesman Tim Gallagher tells USA TODAY all three Carnival ships scheduled to call in Mexico today also have stayed out to sea. The 2,052-passenger Elation, which sails out of San Diego, had been scheduled to visit Ensenada. The 2,052-passenger Carnival Inspiration and 1,452-passenger Holiday, sailing out of Tampa and Mobile, Ala., respectively, were expected in Cozumel.

[Jim Coston]

TWO children aboard a cruise ship that arrived in Sydney on Monday have tested positive to swine flu.

The children were among four passengers from the Pacific Dawn tested for the virus, but two others were diagnosed with general influenza.

The testing delayed the departure of the vessel on its next cruise by seven hours and 130 other passengers were quarantined with symptoms of respiratory illness.

The remaining 1800 disembarking passengers were asked to stay at home or in their hotels for up to seven days.

The ship eventually set sail with its new passengers and a fresh crew on Monday night.

NSW chief health officer Kerry Chant confirmed the test results last night, about 12 hours after the Pacific Dawn docked.

"These two children were treated with Tamiflu and isolated until they're symptom-free for 24 hours," Dr Chant said in a statement.

The rest of the Pacific Dawn's passengers were allowed to leave the ship on Monday morning, unlike on Saturday when almost 3,000 passengers were quarantined on the luxury liner Dawn Princess for more than five hours amid a swine flu scare.

Dr Chant said NSW Health was following up on the 130 Pacific Dawn passengers who reported illnesses such as common influenza.

They would receive Tamiflu if necessary and be placed in isolation for seven days from the onset of the illness.

Other passengers who have not reported sick will be contacted to advise them of the situation and to place them in home quarantine until seven days after they have left the ship.

"A NSW Health public health expert will be travelling with the Pacific Dawn (on the new cruise) to Queensland to monitor the situation," Dr Chant said.

[Jim Coston]

From THESTREET.COM

Carnival Cruise Catches Swine Flu
05/28/09 - 04:00 PM EDT

One of Carnival Cruise Lines'(CCL Quote) worst fears came to pass Thursday when crew members on one of its ships were diagnosed with swine flu.

The news sent shares in the company down by about 2% to $24.23 in afternoon trading. Carnival said the Pacific Dawn had to be diverted to an Australian port. The ship, owned by P&O Cruises but operated by Carnival, is carrying 2,000 passengers on a trip that began Monday. The ship had just returned from its prior sailing, during which several people complained of flu-like symptoms. More than 20 passengers and crew on that previous cruise have since been diagnosed with swine flu.

Already reeling from fewer bookings amid the recession, the cruise-line industry was served a double whammy by the swine-flu outbreak in April.

Both Carnival and rival Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL Quote) banned routes to Mexico when the flu first broke.
Carnival cut its earnings outlook to reflect those itinerary changes, but said its ships would resume trips to the region by mid-June.

The company estimated its itinerary changes in the Caribbean will lower earnings by about 5 cents a share, mostly in the second quarter. For the full fiscal year, that could rise to about 10 cents.

Shares of Royal Caribbean also lost ground in Thursday's session, falling 3% to $14.34.